written Feb 27, 2009
Mar 2, 2009
A Significant Change
- The following charts of the
Euro/Yen, the Dollar/Yen, and, going the other
way, the Yen/Dollar, record technical extremes.
- A reversal seems imminent.
- With numerous set-backs to
the probable advance in general stock and commodity markets the
Dollar Index has been strong and has been testing the high set
with the fall crash.
- This is losing momentum and
with the dynamics registered in the charts on the Yen suggests
the next decline for the dollar is at hand.
- This could release the potential
rallies for crude, which has had a modest start.
Yesterday's Pivot mentioned
that natural gas was technically poised for a rally and today's
outside reversal to the upside is impressive.
The expected rally for stocks
and commodities was based upon a post-crash technical rebound
as well as seasonal tendencies. This has been hampered by the
"too much, too soon" rebound out of the November disaster.
Without this, the potential advance may have weathered the continuing
release of bad financial and corporate news.
Then there has been the problem
of Washington's huge lurch to the left and the administration's
blundering in its method of reporting the "fixes".
However, the buildup of market
forces is likely sufficient to briefly overwhelm extreme dismay
and provide a rather good exit for our seasonal trades over the
next six weeks or so.
Feb 27, 2009
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