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Gold – More Consolidation Before the Next Leg in the Bull Market

Technical observations of

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
Posted Jan 6, 2010

Gold peaked one month ago at $1226. In the bull market of the past decade corrections have typically lasted 31 to 37 trading days, comprising an initial break of 13 (+/- 2) days and a recovery rally into the 22nd day (+/- 3). The decline into December 21st lasted 14 days and produced an RSI(14) reading of 37 right in line with the average time and technical readings of the past ten years.

(Click on images to enlarge)

An interim high is expected in the first week of January coupled with an RSI(14) reading in the range of 48 to 56. A reasonable target for upside resistance on that rally is the 14-day Bollinger Band, currently at $1136 and dropping at $4 per day. From there an important low could form just past the middle of the month.

The twenty week moving average (currently $1067) continues to be viewed as an important support in the ongoing bull market. Based upon the breakout of the 1980 to 2007 consolidation the measured targets for the next leg of the bull market are at $1600 and $2050.

The Commitment of Traders data continues to show high levels of speculative long positions and commercial shorts. The numbers have only dropped by 24,000 and 22,000 from their record readings. A decline of 35 to 40 thousand would be more representative of the minimum cleansing processes observed in the past decade.


Jan 3, 2010
Institutional Advisors

Hoye Archives

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