Can The Metals Continue Their Strength To Prove Bullish Again?
This past week, I had an experience which was quite interesting. As many of you know, I write for MarketWatch, and sometimes will post an article about precious metals. Over the last few years, I have been told that my gold articles have been some of the most well read articles published on MarketWatch. In fact, an article I wrote last year on gold was read by hundreds of thousands of people.
But, this past week, as the metals were soaring, I published another article on gold, and the editors told me that the interest in the article was a bit lower than normal articles. Moreover, some of the comments mirrored this one:
“Bottom In Gold? No way!! It's worthless junk. Obsolete. It's days are over. After all these ages, people are finally figuring out that its always been totally worthless. So, stay away. If you have any, do yourself a favor and dispose of it in the trash. Can't you see - It's obviously going to hell in a hand basket. Maybe buy a bit when it falls to 700..”
So, it seems many have lost interest in gold. While we are still seeking confirmation that the long term bottom has, in fact, been struck, this is further anecdotal evidence in support of that perspective.
Moreover, there are still many investors waiting on the sidelines expecting that gold is going to break below the $1,000 mark, where they have been patiently waiting with all their buy orders. But, markets don't often make it that easy for the masses. And should the market prove to have bottomed, the chasing by these investors will likely fuel the wave iii higher once they realize that the market has passed them by.
For those of you that have read my analysis and reviewed my charts over the last several years, you have seen a very prominent “BUY, BUY, BUY” box, which was provided to our membership at Elliottwavetrader.net several years ago. Several years ago, members were asking me to make everyone aware of where we were bottoming. So rather than constantly repeating myself, or screaming from the rooftops, I provided everyone with a chart presenting my buying target, which was prominently displayed week after week for years, which identified the region in which I thought was prudent in which a long term investor should be buying. In fact, I noted many times on the site that I was personally buying in that region. While there is still a chance that we may drop down deeper into that box one more time, I still believe it will turn out to be one of the best buying opportunities for an investor over the course of the next decade. And, remember, this BUY region was only a region at which we have a high probability for a market turn, as the market certainly could have dropped a bit lower that our BUY region. However, over the long term, I have always believed that anyone who bought within this region would be very pleased years later.
But, before we can become very excited that the market has seen its final lows, we have a process we need to respect. As I have mentioned many times, we need to see a solid 5 wave structure off these lows, which ideally takes us to the upside initial targets I provided to you long ago.
While many thought me crazy at the time, one of the bottoming indications would be that a wave I rally off the lows will take GLD to the 122-125 region, and GDX to the 22 region. While the market was clearly much lower at the time, and we were still mired in negative sentiment, this seemed quite unbelievable to many at the time. And, after seeing a strong rally off all our bottoming “buy, buy, buy” boxes, I am still seeking such confirming targets being struck to be more certain of a lasting bottom.
I have been going over these charts many times in many ways. While we may have a full 5 waves up in the GDX at this point in time, both the GLD and silver charts do not have a solid completed 5 waves up. Rather, they are both only 3 waves up off the lows. While GDX does not have to be in alignment with GLD and silver, for now, I am going to maintain such alignment, with an eye on a potential divergence between the charts.
I also want to note that all charts still maintain the potential for even further extensions in the upcoming week, and I will continually be posting Wave Alerts to members at Elliottwavetrader.net to track our way to the confirmation of a 5 wave structure off the lows, which will provide us with much more confidence that the lows are finally in.
For now, the 113 region in GLD, the 17 region in the GDX, and 15 region in silver should mark support for a 4th wave pullback. Should we be heading to much higher levels for a 5th wave of wave I off the lows, I would not expect the market to break below those levels. A break of those levels will open the door for me to consider that lower lows may still be in the cards. But, for now, I remain cautiously optimistic.
See charts illustrating the wave counts on the $HUI, GLD, GDX, and YI at.
Feb 13, 2016
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.