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This past week in gold

Jack Chan
Posted Jun 21, 2021

Gold sector as represented by $HUI is on a long-term BUY signal.
Long-term signals can last for months and are more suitable for investors.

Short-term is on SELL signal.
Short-term signals can last for days and weeks and are more suitable for traders.

The 167k bottom and now the 215k top suggest that these are not bull market speculative values. Bull market values should be a lot higher.

COT data suggests near-term consolidation.

Our ratio is on SELL signal.

The sharp rally this week in USD has resulted in a double bottom.
More on double tops and bottoms below……

With USD rising sharply this week, gold broke support and the recent 1900 level became a “failed recovery top”.
When prices have established resistance, they look for support.
Major support for gold now is the 200ema at just below $1600.

$HUI has also confirmed a failed recovery top this week with support violated.
Next major support is the 200ema at 240.

Its been a while since we looked at this long term chart between gold and USD.
I’ve been studying this chart for over 20 years.

  • In 2001, gold made a double bottom which resulted in a USD top. That was my first taste of a gold bull market and what a ride it was. A few of you oldtimers may fondly recall buying gold stocks with me such as Glamis, Bema…..
  • In 2011, USD made a double bottom, and we were mostly out of the gold sector for a few years.
  • USD made a double top in early 2020, and that sparked my enthusiasm for another potential gold bull market for years to come. However…
  • With the sharp rally in USD this week, a double bottom is in place, and that may have confirmed a gold peak.
  • In order to invalidate this current prognosis, USD must break the double bottom for gold to resume the bull market, and my renewed commitment for the gold sector for the long-term.


Long-term – on BUY signal.
Short-term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is now down.
$$$ We exited all of our positions with good profits.


Jun 19, 2021
Jack Chan
email: jack@simplyprofits.org
website: www.simplyprofits.org

Disclosure: We do not offer predictions or forecasts for the markets. What you see here is our simple trading model which provides us the signals and set ups to be either long, short, or in cash at any given time. Entry points and stops are provided in real time to subscribers, therefore, this update may not reflect our current positions in the markets. Trade at your own discretion.

We also provide coverage to the major indexes and oil sector.

Jack Chan: Is the editor of simply profits at www.simplyprofits.org, established in 2006. Jack bought his first mining stock, Hoko exploration in 1979, and has been active in the markets for the past 40 years. Technical analysis has helped him filtering out the noise and focusing on the when, and leave the why to the fundamental analysts. His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the Nasdaq top in 2000, the new gold bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, and the US dollar bottom in 2011, and most recently, overweighing in bonds over stocks in 2019 before COVID19 became a household name.

In his spare time, Jack is an avid golfer and tennis player, and volunteers his time coaching and lecturing at local clubs and universities.

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