Gold, Stk Mkt, & Oil: Weekly Chart Waves
Nov 20, 2020
Our current high for wave .v is 3545.99, which is a bit short of our projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.
We are thinking that all of wave -iii- may be complete at the 3645.99 high and if that is the case then we are now starting to fall in wave -iv-.
Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.
We will provide those levels when we believe that all of wave -iii- is complete.
In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:
(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.
Active Positions: Flat!
50% = 25.14;
61.8% = 20.74.
We expect a 3wave corrective pattern within wave (ii).
Oil probably completed wave $a$ at the 36.13 low and likely completed wave $b$ at 41.90.
We should now be dropping in wave $c$ to complete the 3wave correction. The other option is that we are still working on our wave $a$ drop.
There is an outside chance that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 36.13 low, and if that is the case then crude is now moving sharply higher, although more Covid19 lockdowns make this option unlikely.
In the long term, we are rallying in wave C that has the following projections:
C= A = 153.77;
C= 1.618A = 244.78.
Active Positions: Long, with puts as our stop!
Wave ^iv^ looks to be a double 3 wave corrective pattern.
We are waiting for confirmation that it is complete at the 1848.00 low.
After wave ^iv^ ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave ^v^ of *iii*, which has the following initial projected endpoint:
*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.
We do have higher projections also.
Active Positions: Long, with puts as our stop!
We believe that all of wave ii of 3 is complete at the 21.81 low and we are starting wave iii.
Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:
iii = 1.618i = 51.37.
The next major resistance will be the 26.00/26.25 area.
Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:
3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50
In the very long term, we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count:
1 = 49.82;
2 = 11.64;
3 = First projection is 86.50.
Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with puts as our stop!
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