A New Wave Count For Gold
Oct 23, 2020
Our preferred count is that all of wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low. Our concern with that count is that the wave ^iv^ retracement was very deep.
Having said that, if wave ^iv^ ended at the 1851.00 low then we are now rallying in wave ^v^ and all of wave *iii*, which has the following projected endpoint of :
*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.
We are now considering two alternate counts. Our new preferred alternate count is shown in purple on our daily chart.
In this count wave ^iii^ is still underway and within wave ^iii^, we completed wave $iii$ at the 2077.90 high and are about to complete a wave ^iv^ bullish triangle.
This bullish triangle could be complete at the 1896.60 low.
If that is the case, then gold is about the thrust sharply higher in wave $v$ of ^iii^. Gold has now broken above the upper purple trendline of this triangle, and is testing that breakout.
This alternate count matches our alternate gold stock counts (GDX).
Our second alternate is shown in red on our daily chart and it suggests that only wave $i$ of ^iii^ ended at the 2077.90 high and all of wave $ii$ at the 1851.00 low.
In this case we are now rallying in wave $iii$ of ^iii^.
Trading Recommendation: Go long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Update & Tactics:
We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high and likely all of wave (ii) at the 21.81 low.
If this count is correct then silver is now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii). Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:
(iii) = 1.618(i) = 51.37.
The next resistance is at the 26.00/26.10 level.
Trading Recommendation: Go long and use a put as a stop.
Active Positions: Long, using a put as a stop!
Update & Tactics:
Our next projected endpoint for end of wave *v* and all of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 1.618-i-= 91.88 or at least the wave *iii* low of 91.72.
Trading Recommendation: Flat.
Active Positions: Flat.
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