Gold Is Solid & Stock Market Is Dangerous
Jun 10, 2020
50% = 1659.30
61.8% = 1639.60.
Within wave $ii$, we think wave (a) ended at 1670.90, and all of our bearish wave (b) triangle at the 1761.00 high. We have been dropping in wave (c), which has a minimum target of 1670.90, which is the wave (a) low, although a drop into our retracement zone is expected.
Wave (c) has still not reached our minimum target of 1670.90. We have now rallied above the downtrend line connecting 1756.90 and 1728.40… which is suggesting that all of wave $ii$ could be complete at the 1671.70 low.
After wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave $iii$ to be the next big event in this market. We note that if wave -iv- in the GDX ETF is completed at the 31.23 low, then wave $ii$ in gold ended at the 1671.70 low!
The other option is that our wave (b) triangle could be extending and expanding with only wave -d- ending at the 1671.70 low. In this case we are now rallying in wave -e- of (b).
^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1967.10
Our initial projection for the end of all of wave *iii* is still:
*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:
23.6% = 17.91;
38.2% = 17.27.
The current drop in silver has now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the completion of wave -iv- and the start of our wave -v- rally.
On the Intraday Chart the drops are corrective, which is suggesting that silver is going to move higher.
Trading Recommendation: Long at 14.85, and using a put as a stop.
We continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of:
(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.
Wave (iii) will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, so we are likely still working on -i- of (iii), although we are likely getting very close to its completion.
After wave -i- ends we expect a wave -ii- drop that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally.
We doubt that this economic activity is going happen as this stock market rally is suggesting… and are trading accordingly!!
Trading Recommendation: Flat.
Active Positions: Flat!
Free Offer For 321Gold Readers: Please send me an email to email@example.com and I’ll send you our free short-term wave count charts and analysis for GDX and the CDNX junior miners index, with both daily and 60minute charts!
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