Precious Metals: Long Term Wave Counts
May 14, 2018
Weekly Gold Chart (double-click to enlarge):
We continue to work on the assumption that all of a complex wave ^ii^ NOT complete at the 1303.60 low. The specifics what we think wave ^ii^ is now doing are included on our daily gold chart, but we appear to be still working on wave $c$ of ^ii^.
Within wave $c$ it looks we still working on our corrective wave !iv! rally. Only a break now above the wave !i! low of 1335.50 low would confirm that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1304.20 low and a sharp wave ^iii^ is now underway.
Our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone for all of wave ^ii^ is:
50% = 1301.90;
This drop in gold is following our wave -iv- rally in the USDX, which is described below under the USDX section.
Overall, gold should continue rally sharply in 2018.
Weekly Silver Chart (double-click to enlarge):
Longer Term Update:
Silver was higher this past week as we reached a high of 16.87.
It looks like wave ^ii^ in silver could now be complete at the 16.07 low, and if that is the case then we have started a very sharp wave ^iii^ higher.
Our only concern with confirming this now, is that gold appears to still have one more drop before it completes its corresponding wave ^ii^ correction.
As indicated above gold could have completed its wave ^ii^ correction at the 1304.20 low, as a failure, but we will resist making that our base case for the time being.
Silver should move sharply higher in 2018.
In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;
1 = 49.82;
Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!
The GDX was higher this past week, and we challenged the 23.00 level.
We continue to assume that we are now falling in our second wave (c) of ii, which has a minimum target of 20.84. Over the last couple of weeks the GDX has been rallying as gold has been falling, which is clouding our short term outlook.
Longer term, all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low.
Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!
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