Gold, Silver & Crude Oil
April 30, 2018
Longer Term Update:
Weekly Gold Chart:
Gold was lower this past week reaching a low of 1316.30. We continue to work on the assumption that a complex wave ^ii^ is not complete at the 1303.60 low. The detailed specifics as to what we think wave ^ii^ is now doing are included for subscribers on our “Daily Gold Chart”.
We appear to now be falling in wave $c$ of ^ii^.
Within wave $c$ it looks like wave !i! and !ii! are now complete and we should be falling in an incomplete wave !iii!.
Our 50 to 61.8% retracement zone for all of wave ^ii^ is:
50% = 1301.90;
This drop in gold is following our wave -iv- rally in the USDX, which is described below under the USDX section.
Overall, gold should continue to rally in 2018.
Longer term, our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart are very positive:
Active Positions: Long with put options as stops!
Longer Term Update:
Weekly Silver Chart:
Silver was sharply lower this past week as we fell to a low of 16.39.
It looks like silver is now working on complex and extended wave ^ii^ correction.
Our analysis suggests that wave is not complete at the 16.10 low.
In the last couple of mornings and in weekly posts we cautioned investors that gold was looking to go lower, while silver was looking to go higher.
We suspected silver would be an incorrect count (but hoped it wouldn’t be). The last down wave potential ending at 16.10 was based on what is called “wave failure analysis”, which has a spotty track record. We expect silver to keep falling now to at least the 16.10 low, to complete all of wave ^ii^.
Overall, silver should trend significantly higher in 2018.
In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;
1 = 49.82;
Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6% of the entire wave 1 rally.
Longer Term Update:
Weekly Crude Chart:
Crude traded sideways this past week, as our current high for wave *b* remains at 69.55.
It looks like wave $iv$ of ^c^ ended at 61.61, and wave $v$ is now rallying in an incomplete ending diagonal triangle, which could be complete at the 69.55 high. We are waiting for confirmation that this is a correct assumption, but that will only happen if we drop below the wave $iv$ low of 61.81.
The most important takeaway from the current weekly crude oil chart is that: “The rally from the wave *a* low of 39.19 is not impulsive, so we do not think that crude is going to rally in a new bull market, until we revisit the 39.19 low one more time.”
In the very long term, we are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low.
If this assumption is correct, then in the big wave counts picture, crude is heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.
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