A Shocking US Stock Market Scenario
April 6, 2020
The SP500 moved sharply lower this past week, reaching 2447.49, and closed at 2488.65.
If our wave iv irregular type corrective pattern is the correct analysis then it is complete at the 2191.86 high and the SP500 is now poised to rally “impossibly” to all time new highs again in wave v, as shown on the Weekly SP500 Chart.
Last week we also had a key weekly reversal higher, which is bullish.
If we are now rallying in wave v, then our current count is suggesting that all of wave -i- ended at the 2637.01 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-.
Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:
50% = 2414.44;
61.8% = 2361.91.
The current low of 2447.49 is still short of our 50% retracement level so we suspect that wave -ii- will be become more complex and therefore still developing.
Our wave v rally needs to be impulsive looking or it can also become a complex ending diagonal triangle, but for now it looks like we are still going higher!
The other option is that all of wave V is complete at the 3393.53 high and that we are now dropping in a multi-year meltdown, to the following retracement levels:
50% = 1696.77
These levels above represent a correction of the entire history of the SP500 from its inception when it was valued at 0 to the wave V high of 3393.53.
Whether a “super top” is in now, or as our analysis suggests, it comes from a marginal new high what lies ahead is almost inconceivable devastation for stock market investors, and for America.
Gold was initially lower this past week, to 1576.00, but by the end of week we were at 1645.70 and we’re roaring higher again this morning!
Gold now has a very large head and shoulder bottom formation on the Daily Chart…
With a break of the neckline suggesting a run all the way up to the 1950.00/2000.00 price level is imminent!
Our assumption is that all of wave *ii* is now complete at the 1450.90 low that that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave $iii$.
Of course, it would have been better if wave $ii$ had reached our 50% retracement level to ensure that this wave is still not underway (in some kind of complex pattern).
Under the current circumstances it would be very strange if gold dropped back to the 1429.40 level. It’s possible, but very unlikely.
Within wave $iii$, we think wave ^i^ ended at the 1699.30 high and all of wave ^ii^ at the 1576.00 low.
We should now be working on wave ^iii^ that has the following initial projection for its completion:
^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1967.10
We should see higher prices next week, and they could be much higher.
Our current projection for the end of wave .iii. is:
.iii. = 2.618.i. = 2036.80
The USDX was sharply higher his week, reaching a high of 100.97, closing at 100.68.
All of a multi-year complex wave ii correction finally ended at the 103.96 high. We are now dropping in the initial stages of wave iii, with -i- of (i) ending at 98.34.
We are now rallying in wave -ii-, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 101.15
Our high of 100.97 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level so we should expect some further gains in the USDX next week, before all of wave -ii- ends and we start to drop sharply in wave -iii-.
Active Positions: Flat!
GDX was lower this week, to 23.00, but then rallied to close at 24.95.
We are now working on the assumption that all of wave 2 is complete at the 16.15 low and that we started to rally in wave 3 which has the following initial endpoint:
3 = 1.618 (1) = 47.20
In the short-term wave 3 is subdividing and our view is that wave -ii- of ^iii^ of 3 ended at the 23.00 low.
If that is the case, then we are now rallying in the initial stages of wave -iii- that has the following initial projection for its completion:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 35.81
We should move higher this coming week.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops!
Free Offer For 321Gold Readers: Please send me an Email to firstname.lastname@example.org and I’ll send you some free short-term projections for gold, silver, GDX, and big wave counts for key mining stocks!
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