Gold, Silver, & Gold Stocks: Modest Pain
Jan 29, 2020
Our retracement levels for all of wave $ii$ remain at:
50% = 1529.80;
61.8% = 1510.00.
The current low of 1536.40 is still a bit short of our 50% retracement level of 1529.80, so we probably should expect a little more weakness before all of wave $ii$ ends.
Wave $ii$ in gold may be forming a 3 wave pattern with wave ^a^ ending at 1536.40, which we have now shown on our Daily Gold Chart as our alternate count.
In this count we could rallying in wave ^b^, which maybe now already be complete at the 1588.40 high!
After wave ^b^ ends we should expect one more drop in wave ^c^, below the 1536.40 low, to complete all of wave $ii$.
Silver and the GDX have all dropped within their retracement levels for their respective corrections, however, so there is an outside chance that wave $ii$ in gold could be complete at the 1536.40 low.
Once wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in higher in wave $iii$.
One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:
.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
We are falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 17.73;
61.8% = 17.46.
We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ at the 17.59 low, although we have shown an alternate count on the Daily Silver Chart that is suggesting that wave $ii$ is still underway.
In this count we should expect to revisit the 17.59 low one more time before all of wave $ii$ ends.
We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we are sure that all of wave $ii$ is complete.
Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:
^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.
Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
That should complete all of wave -ii-.
Our initial projection for the end of wave -iii- is: 34.28.
In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is: 36.42
Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is: 48.95
HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:
iii = 1.618i = 225.92;
iii = 2.618i = 275.05.
In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;
-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.
In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.
Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
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