Gold, Silver, & Oil: Riding The Big Waves
Jan 3, 2019
In the overnight session we have moved higher again and have reached a high of 1294.30!
Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the “Daily Gold Chart”. Within that first impulsive sequence we believe that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$. Within wave $iii$, we believe we are still rallying in an incomplete wave !iii!, which has an initial target of:
Within wave !iii!, we should now be moving higher in incomplete wave ?v? that has an initial target of 1296.40.
There is an outside chance that wave ?iii? could be extending and in that case we should be heading to our second projection for wave ?iii? of 1300.30.
Our second projection for an extended wave ?iii? is:
?iii? = 2.618?i? = 1300.30.
We are getting close to our initial target of 1296.40, and if our current analysis is correct then wave !iii! will be ending soon. After wave !iii! ends we should expect a wave !iv! correction that retraces between 23.6% to 28.3% of the entire wave !iii! rally.
We appear to have broken above resistance at the 1281.00 level, which should give us a shot at the 1300.00/1305.00 level.
Once the USDX finally starts to accelerate lower in its initial phase of its wave (iii) drop, gold and silver are expected to move sharply higher also.
Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:
.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.
We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 15.68!
We should now breaking above resistance at the 15.64 level and if successful our next target should be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level.
We should still see higher prices in the days ahead.
Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:
iii = 1.618i = 26.09.
Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Crude Oil Daily Chart:
Crude reached a low of 44.38 in yesterday’s day session before moving sharply higher to reach a high of 47.76 with us long!
We are currently trading around the 46.80 level.
In yesterday’s Morning Post we said this: “We are expecting a drop back to at least the 44.38 low, before we start to move higher again.”
The low was 44.38, after which we moved sharply higher!
All of wave a is complete at the 76.70 high and we are now falling in wave b that is heading back or even below the 26.05 low. If the current 3 wave pattern is an “abc”, then we are now falling in a wave x, which will not likely fall back to the 26.05 low. This count will be our alternate.
We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (a) is now complete at the 42.21 low and that our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for wave (b) are:
50% = 59.41;
61.8% = 63.52.
In the short term we are still expecting crude to continue higher, although it is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (b) is going develop into, but as a minimum it will need to be at least one 3 wave pattern.
Suncor: Suncor was higher in yesterday’s trading session, and we are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (i) is complete at the 25.81 low. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave (ii) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:
50% = 34.04;
61.8% = 35.98.
Long Term Chart:
Active Positions: Long oil with put at 57.00 as a stop!
Free Offer For 321Gold Readers: Please send me an Email to email@example.com and I’ll send you our key “GDX Takes Charge!!” report, with key wave counts for both the short term and the long term GDX charts! We include tactical approaches to make money on the play!
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