Outlook On Gold:
Buying Opportunity and Hedge Against
Uncertainty Ahead
Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist
Merk Hard Currency
Fund
Oct 24, 2008
Perhaps the most interesting
development during the intensification of the credit crisis is
that the price of gold did not climb higher than it did. Upon
the initiation of the crisis in August 2007, the price of gold
surged reaching a high of $1002.95 on March 14, 2007. Since then
the cost of the precious commodity has fluctuated with the most
recent price action sending it to recent lows of 725.74. However,
given the pervasive uncertainty in markets we think that this
represents a strategic buying opportunity on the back of our
bullish call for gold to spike towards $1100 in 2009 with the
potential for a much larger move over the longer term.
Given the sheer volume of liquidity
that has been pumped into the global economic system over the
past year it is an understatement to say the least that the price
of gold has trended downward. A look at the adjusted money base
of the US indicates that the money supply is up 18.6% year over
year. The Fed alone has pumped over 1 trillion dollars into the
economy and the US federal government will do well to avoid running
a 2 trillion dollar deficit during fiscal year 2009.
The enormity of the steps taken
to prevent a complete meltdown of the global banking system will
put at risk years of hard won credibility of global central banks
and keep the specter of inflation at the forefront of the minds
of the investing class. Although, we are currently poised to
observe a dis-inflationary moment as the deleveraging that is
already underway has ushered in a period of intense declines
in the values of assets across just about every class. With the
velocity of money in decline, the contemporaneous increase in
the supply of money should not stimulate an increase in inflation
in the near term. However, over the longer term the independence
of the central banks around the world will be severely tested
by governments and publics beset by extraordinary levels of debt
and increasing rates of unemployment.
Moreover, the increase in the
supply of gold will fall well short of the increase in the supply
of paper money over the next few years. In the context of a profound
economic uncertainty, financial instability and geopolitical
turbulence gold will slowly begin to reassert itself as the preferred
safe haven of savvy investors, probably at the expense of the
US dollar.
The risks to this scenario
are two fold. First, the current dis-inflationary moment quickly
unwinds and evolves into a Japanese style deflation for the US
and the major economic powers, which would depress the price
of commodities further and limit the upside on gold. Second,
that the financial stress in the EU, Asia and emerging markets
could turn out to be more pronounced than that of the US. This
could cause the dollar to continue to appreciate, which would
limit the upside of the move in the price of gold.
Given the volatility in the
price of equities and the uncertainty in fixed income markets
over the intent of the Federal Reserve at this time, we are much
more confident in the direction of the price of gold over the
medium term than we are that of stocks and treasuries. The steps
taken by global central banks have begun to thaw credit markets
and interbank lending appears to be in the process of recovering.
But those, steps may be difficult to reverse and increase in
dollar denominate reserves we think is a bullish signal on gold
going forward.
The unwinding of positions
in a panic and the intense period of deleveraging ahead has stimulated
many market participants to move smartly into Yen and quite interestingly,
into the dollar as safe haven moves. Given the stability
of the Japanese banking system, the move into the Yen makes sense.
However, we see the recent strength of the dollar an understandably
reactionary move by global investors after a half-century of
a dollar hegemony, to find shelter in a global storm where no
safe havens appear to exist and instead have turned to a deeply
indebted US government out of habit. Thus, once the tide begins
to ebb from the storm and investors can begin to evaluate the
extent to which the US, EU and global governments have moved
to stem the tide we do expect that gold will replace the dollar
as the preferred hedge against uncertainty ahead.
Oct 23, 2008
Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist
Merk Investments
Contact
Merk
©2005-2008 Merk Investments
LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Joseph Brusuelas is Chief Economist
at Merk Investments.
The Merk
Hard Currency Fund is a fund that seeks to profit from a potential
decline in the dollar. To learn more about the Fund, or to subscribe
to our free newsletter, please visit www.merkfund.com.
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests
in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary
policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the
U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as
a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against
a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market,
credit and interest risks-with the ease of investing in a mutual
fund.
The Fund may
be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with
a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate
the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or
are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in
or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on
the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com.
Investors should
consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses
of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This
and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may
be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com
or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully
before you invest.
The Fund primarily
invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency
exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and
the price of the Fund's shares. Investing in foreign instruments
bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for
reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in
some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability,
and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest
rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Fund's
portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market
interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject
to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified
fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number
of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities
which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of
risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks
please refer to the Fund's prospectus.
The views in this article were those of Joseph Brusuelas as of
the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views
at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be
construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell
or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities
mentioned herein.
321gold Ltd
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