US
Employment Picture:
September Non-Farm Payrolls Preview
Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist
Merk Hard Currency
Fund
Oct 2, 2008
The upcoming release of the
September non-farm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
will not provide much comfort to the market or the public. Our
forecast implies that payrolls will decline -105K and that the
rate of unemployment will increase to 6.2% for the month. The
strike at Boeing and the displacement of workers in the Southeast
due to the twin hurricanes that hit the area during the sampling
period should send the headline estimate of job losses above
the recent trend. The risk for the report is to the downside
and we do expect that the rate of job destruction will increase
in the coming months.
Thus far 650K jobs have been
lost during the year. The troubles in the housing sector and
the now yearlong crisis in the credit market have begun to spillover
into the broader economy. We anticipate that autoworkers and
individuals in the technology sector, especially those in the
work in computers may see an increase in unemployment in September
and in the coming months.
We base this forecast on the
growing evidence that that weakness in the manufacturing and
goods producing sector has spilled over into the once potent
service sector. We anticipate that close to half of all losses
will occur in the manufacturing sector with the service sector
seeing a fourth straight month of declines, in addition the weakness
in the goods producing sector. Outside of the positive contributions
from the government and the healthcare sector, the labor picture
is in the process of moving in a decisively negative direction.
The deterioration in the unemployment
picture is equally bleak. The sharp jump in the rate of unemployment
in August was characterized by an increase in the duration of
unemployment of 27 weeks or longer. Over the past year the number
of unemployed individuals has increased by 2.2 million, while
the unemployment rate jumped 1.4% over that same period, 1.3%
over the past six months and 0.4% in August alone. During the
post war period, each time the rate of unemployment has increased
by 1.0% during a twelve-month period the economy proved each
time to be in recession. Based on the most recent data we have
updated our forecast on the rate of unemployment to 6.9% by mid
2009.
Looking forward, the September
jobs report will not capture the recent intensification of the
credit market and the complete seizing up of the short-term market
for money. Firms that rely on the credit markets to roll over
short-term debt and meet bi-monthly payrolls may find it increasingly
difficult to do so. If the current financial crisis turns into
an economic event, the market should ready itself to observe
a far sharper dislocation in the workforce than is currently
assumed. Thus, if the credit markets remain frozen well into
October, there is a definitive risk that culling of the labor
force will pick up beyond our provisional expectation of losses
through the end of the year in the job sector of up to 150k per
month.
Oct 2, 2008
Joseph Brusuelas
Chief Economist
Merk Investments
Contact
Merk
©2005-2008 Merk Investments
LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Joseph Brusuelas is Chief Economist
at Merk Investments.
The Merk
Hard Currency Fund is a fund that seeks to profit from a potential
decline in the dollar. To learn more about the Fund, or to subscribe
to our free newsletter, please visit www.merkfund.com.
The Merk Hard Currency Fund is a no-load mutual fund that invests
in a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary
policies assembled to protect against the depreciation of the
U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. The Fund may serve as
a valuable diversification component as it seeks to protect against
a decline in the dollar while potentially mitigating stock market,
credit and interest risks-with the ease of investing in a mutual
fund.
The Fund may
be appropriate for you if you are pursuing a long-term goal with
a hard currency component to your portfolio; are willing to tolerate
the risks associated with investments in foreign currencies; or
are looking for a way to potentially mitigate downside risk in
or profit from a secular bear market. For more information on
the Fund and to download a prospectus, please visit www.merkfund.com.
Investors should
consider the investment objectives, risks and charges and expenses
of the Merk Hard Currency Fund carefully before investing. This
and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may
be obtained by visiting the Fund's website at www.merkfund.com
or calling 866-MERK FUND. Please read the prospectus carefully
before you invest.
The Fund primarily
invests in foreign currencies and as such, changes in currency
exchange rates will affect the value of what the Fund owns and
the price of the Fund's shares. Investing in foreign instruments
bears a greater risk than investing in domestic instruments for
reasons such as volatility of currency exchange rates and, in
some cases, limited geographic focus, political and economic instability,
and relatively illiquid markets. The Fund is subject to interest
rate risk which is the risk that debt securities in the Fund's
portfolio will decline in value because of increases in market
interest rates. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund will be subject
to more investment risk and potential for volatility than a diversified
fund because its portfolio may, at times, focus on a limited number
of issuers. The Fund may also invest in derivative securities
which can be volatile and involve various types and degrees of
risk. For a more complete discussion of these and other Fund risks
please refer to the Fund's prospectus.
The views in this article were those of Joseph Brusuelas as of
the newsletter's publication date and may not reflect his views
at any time thereafter. These views and opinions should not be
construed as investment advice nor considered as an offer to sell
or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any securities
mentioned herein.
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