 Japan, Argentina, Weimar, or Muddle?
Jim Willie
CB
Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "Hat Trick
Letter"
Apr 30, 2003
Experts and other purported
authorities have made frequent comparisons concerning the US
Economy versus Japan. The consensus is that we will not travel
the same agonizing path marred by contraction and slow motion
destruction. We in the USA have far more similarities than we
want to admit with the fading Asian powerhouse. However, critically
dangerous differences will prevent the muddle process from occurring
smoothly in our economy. We actually compare poorly in differences
listed in this article. No, the USA is not as bad as Japan. WE
ARE MUCH MORE DANGEROUSLY WORSE. Apply strong Weimar
tools within a stubborn Japan quagmire, when addicted to foreign
capital, and you risk shock-ridden Argentine outcomes, not a
sloppy Muddle.
For over two years American
business leaders, financial leaders, brokerage analysts, media
pundits, and investors have denied that the United States is
gradually entering a Liquidity Trap bearing strong resemblance
to the one that has ensnared Japan's economy since 1990. Such denials seem patriotic at best,
and obtuse at worse. Prevailing interest rates on USTBill yields
might soon be pulled below 1.0% in order to satisfy loud cries
and urges emanating from the financial markets. Even car loans,
offered at 0% interest now, matching the 0% down payment allowed,
have failed to keep sales from sliding. A real estate decline
of even moderate proportions would render our groans more completely
in rhyme. US banks do not stand as the vulnerable line of defense.
The victim on our side of the Pacific Ocean will be primarily
Fanny Mae and the Government Sponsored Enterprises, which act
much like the Sirens of Greek Mythology, luring sailors to shipwreck.
We deny the litany of parallels between 2000-2003 in the USA,
and 1980-1985 in Japan. Barrons has responsibly reported numerous
comparisons to the Nikkei stock bust and the Nasdaq bust, with
only the S&P "other shoe" to drop. Sadly, the United
States economy is already in the early throes of a liquidity
trap. Eleven ineffective Fed rate cuts stand as testimony, confirmed
by a flat GDP, stalled consumer spending, rising household debt,
downtrending stocks, and reluctance by business management to
expand the capital base in the face of stubborn overcapacity.
Neither Japan nor the USA
might stumble in the Land of Muddle much longer. Some believe Japan can muddle forever,
since they have muddled for over a decade. They may finally be
succumbing to the Kondratiev Winter forces of liquidation now.
Nikkei last month lurched below a multi-year support level, perhaps
sensing the US consumer pullback or an imminent rise in the yen
versus the dollar. Large Japanese firms are now selling off large
tranches of stock in other corporations, fetching poor prices.
Distress will likely lead them to repatriate foreign investments
at a quicker pace than broadly anticipated. Their largest block
of securities is $430 billion in USTBonds, whose sale even in
moderate quantity will lead to higher longterm bond yields. Escalating
US federal deficits work to ensure at least slightly higher rates.
Unless the Fed jumpstarts their next quantum stage of monetization,
lapping up Asian supply, longterm US rates would rise to sabotage
any hope of economic recovery. Other Asian holders might follow
suit. A threat overhangs the US mortgage market, and thus real
estate!
As our government and financial
technicians seek to prevent a painful recession (which would
surely feed upon itself), we are implementing much the same levers
as the Weimar Republic in the 1920's. Two decades of bailouts have affirmed the Federal
Reserve's role as last resort guarantor of world economic accidents.
We are approaching the Keynesian Monetarist end game. A mere
22 cents of new business activity is produced from every new
minted dollar (in credit), while 86% of the current GDP is now
devoted to debt service. This was precisely the warning issued
by the Austrian School of Economics, which has been ignored for
decades. The vonMises Institute "students" have warned
that late in the debt-based system, the govt will be forced to
accelerate the money supply in order to maintain a constant level
of economic activity, and ward off a deflationary recession.
As Weimar levers are pulled to escape the clutches of the Japan
Liquidity Trap, we subject our economy and our financial markets
to the extreme risk of foreign capital flight, as seen in Argentina.
Unlike domestic bondholders, foreign creditors undergo loss due
to currency exposure. They have begun to act upon the Fed's boastful
yet menacing signals. If they exit our credit markets in response
to unfettered Fed monetization, the Fed action will be vetoed
to bring about no change, or even higher interest rates. Severe
currency disruptions lie ahead!
In their next panic, the
Greenspan-led hacks running our Fed will plant the seeds of hyper-inflation,
whose germination will be dictated by China. In November of 2002, the new Fed Governor
Bernanke crowed that the Federal Reserve would avoid the unfortunate
Japanese outcome by putting their high-tech printing press to
work, early and often. In recent weeks, Dept of Inflation Chairman
Alan Greenspan denied his shortage of ammunition, citing numerous
monetization options, along with reserve requirement relaxations,
all of which would assist in providing liquidity. A common economist
error is to apply tools that work during expansion, and expect
their usage to succeed during contraction (of corporate profits,
sales revenue, and asset values, while debt default spreads).
We flaunt tools of monetization, which carry great risk of a
Weimar hyper-inflation consequence in time. The tools we brandish
might resemble a guillotine poised over our financial body, with
the USDollar currency the exposed head. When, not if China revalues
their yuan currency upward, the entire non-Japan Asian Rim will
follow suit, inducing the seeds of US price inflation to sprout.
China will likely shift gears when their central bank has a desired
quantity of reserve assets, led by gold to gird their currency.
At that time, China emerges front and center as a world power!
"Liquidity" is
nothing but a deceptive euphemism for more "Credit." When abused, credit leads to massive
inflationary, then deflationary outcomes. We live now during
a time of bankruptcy in economic thought and balance sheets.
The public is now told that our sickly economy needs more liquidity,
when excessive credit has actually caused the current extreme
stagnation. So why would more credit remedy the pervasive malaise?
More infusions of heavy liquidity doses will surely lead to a
more challenging problem later. In full gallop, debt default
and debt retirement are now overtaking herculean federal attempts
to reflate the economy. The most recent St. Louis Fed data on
MZM indicates the money supply is currently in decline!
Disturbing parallels are
slowly emerging in the geopolitical and financial fronts between
the United States and Europe, with Iraq the new Weimar Republic,
and the USDollar the new ReichMark. German debts were owed to the angry vengeful
British and French in the punitive counter-productive resolution
imposed by the victors following World War I, signed as the Versailles
Treaty. Fast forward to today. American debts now are owed to
overridden Europeans, infuriated Arabs, bewildered Japanese,
and upstart Chinese. A more immediate and politically volatile
$80B debt is owed by the Baath Nazis of Iraq to Europe. Together,
the American-Iraq debts make for a strange partnership reminiscent
of Versailles. Creditors are slowly growing in their anger. If
not from emerging geopolitical differences, or irreconcilable
religious differences, or terrorist resentment, then the basis
of anger might come from simple market decline in the underlying
currency. The entire Iraq War was paid on the USGovt Credit Card.
Will this queer alliance founded in debt desperation and resource
deprivation motivate a similar power land grab such as Hitler's
with Poland, France, Belgium, and North Africa? I say yes, it
has already begun. I believe we are witnessing the beginning
of World War IV, not Arab Democracy. The parallels of deep debt,
angry creditors, economic stagnation, resource shortage, and
international tension seem clear, but are lost on the public,
whose reaction better resembles one to a football game. New alliances
are forming, even as NATO and the UN each appear effectively
null and void. Was NATO trampled in pursuit of oil, or defense
of the dollar, perhaps both !?!
The Federal Reserve is notorious
for overshooting, and owns a track record to prove it. Recall the planned slowdown in 1992,
when the Fed pulled back on money supply for two full years,
killing both Bush Sr's presidential bid and the economy's attempt
to overcome the Gulf War energy price shock. Recall the panicky
increase in Fed Funds rate targets in 1994-95, when the long
bond rose over 2% in shock. Recall after the Asian Meltdown in
1997 and the consequent Russian Default in 1998, when the charioteer
Greenspan identified irrational exuberance, he loosened the monetary
reins when at most he should have held fixed. This error was
compounded in late 1999, when he went full throttle on liquidity
in anticipation of worldwide Y2K snafus that never surfaced.
The Fed tightened in overkill from late 1999 into mid-2000, fabricating
the "Soft Landing" illusion, only to produce a worldwide
bust. Then suddenly another panicky move to ease monetary pressure
in January 2001 that has yet to end. Money supply has expanded
more rapidly since early 2001 than at any time in modern history,
taking on Weimar proportions. The world is awash in dollars.
I believe the Fed is now finally perplexed, if not frightened.
For the first time in the Fed's history, its chairman admitted
to being in the dark. The unprecedented admission came at the
last FOMC meeting. Expect an overshoot as the Fed struggles against
a mighty global deflation foe, with no option but to sacrifice
the bloated dollar and allow an explosion in gold!
The US Economy may soon
be severely tested by a series of shocks. Instead of muddling through, I consign to the
outlook laid out by Doug Noland of Prudent Bear. He believes
we are careening perilously toward the Argentine outcome, with
numerous shocks and sudden disruptions emerging from currency,
credit, and banking distress, trumpeted by foreign flight. The
interventionist action so far by the federal govt has only kept
retail spending levitated in an economy that is 70% dependent
on consumers. Monetary action encouraged by the Federal Reserve
has only drawn households deeper into debt, even raiding their
stable equity source in residential homes. Despite Greenspan's
claim that household and corporate balance sheets have made a
remarkable adjustment, the exact contradiction is the reality.
Is he stupid or senile or lying? My guess is "lying"
so as to condone his own failure. The US Economy is in a more
perilous position than it was in the summer of 2000, when danger
was first sniffed in the stock market. Now a real estate bubble
is steadfastly denied. We may have begun the second phase of
the New Paradigm Recession, triggered by a housing decline. As
said in Alcoholics Anonymous, if the family repeatedly wonders
aloud whether Uncle Sammy could be an alcoholic, then he most
certainly is. Why else would we wonder so regularly? Recession
straight ahead!
The prescription for an
Argentine implosion shock is a combination of debt failures,
weak export competitiveness, and sudden departure of foreign
capital. The US economy
has suffered the debt duress for over two years. Our gaping trade
imbalance is now an annualized 6% of national GDP. We are primed
and vulnerable for some degree of foreign abandonment. Owing
to our deteriorating condition of extraordinary import dependence
(both capital and finished products), our economy might stand
alone among industrialized nations in a return encounter with
price inflation. The avenue may be built from imported products
priced higher after a dollar decline, atop a foundation of rising
commodity and energy prices. New factors have entered the mix,
as Europe and the Middle East are showing hostility toward us.
The appeal of EuroBonds now eclipses our USTBonds. Arabs experiment
with pricing crude oil shipments denominated in euros. Islamics
launch their gold-backed Dinar currency this summer. Forces are
aligned to create an international bandwagon leaving New York
City and our financial markets, taking hot money out of town.
Such is the Argentine airpocket missing, at least for now. Foreign
capital exodus, dead ahead!
Differences between USA
and Japan are very unfavorable, relating to currency valuation,
bankruptcy ease, saving propensity, foreigner debt ownership,
financial engineering, monetization techniques, basic integrity,
and intervention willingness :
a) unlike
Japan, US Economy cannot tolerate a declining USDollar
A declining USDollar
is anathema for our economy, since imports would open the door
to price inflation. Asia operates as our subservient manufacturing
base. If Asian currencies rise, in particular the pace-setter
Chinese yuan, then prices across our entire retail sector will
rise. Even the absurdly indexed CPI will register a rise. A declining
dollar imports inflation, reversing the 1990 decade-long trend.
Higher longterm interest rates would immediately be reflected.
The real estate sector, providing easy capital for sustaining
consumption, would suffer a prick to its seemingly unending bubble.
A recession would ensue. A falling dollar brings higher commodity
and energy costs. Higher production and living costs would smother
the economy, pinching corporate earnings and consumer spending.
The stock market would naturally see considerable foreign and
domestic selling, which feeds back into a weaker economy. It
is all bad.
Japan is sustained from reduced
currency, since an exporting nation. The Bank of Japan acted
as accomplice in the hyper-growth of credit in the 1980 decade.
Devastating debt management at the national level corroded the
strong trade surplus effect to the yen currency. More importantly,
the BoJ worked in concert with the foreign exchange markets in
punishing the yen for irresponsible credit policy. While their
economy slowly has died (let's call a spade a spade), export
pricing was kept competitive by means of chronic yen currency
debasement. The exact opposite is true of the United States,
where price inflation, reduced consumption, and economic recession
would follow a currency devaluation. The flight of foreign investor
capital may soon occur.
b) unlike Japan, US Economy
permits bankruptcies as a regular course of business
Our economy is undergoing
an acceleration in bankruptcy filings, both corporate and personal,
as waning sales revenue has stressed high debt levels across
the entire economy. The job of a recession is to cull unproductive,
irresponsible, and excessive debt. However, the entire United
States economy is a debt experiment gone amok. Debt levels are
many quantum levels higher than those seen in 1930. Debts from
federal, state, corporate, city, municipal, and household are
all under stress. The stress at the state level is acute. California
flirts with bankruptcy. Some contractor bills are now being paid
with California coupons, a precursor to new "state currency."
Will these coupons act as legal tender to pay grocery bills?
Nevada has announced intentions to mint silver coins, certain
to be challenged in court. A revolution in state currency is
about to occur. Fiscal duress at the local level threatens school
function. Their main recourse is to raise property taxes, thereby
pressuring real estate further. Pension funding now competes
for scarce capital in the service of corporate debt. Rolling
over the longterm debt is not the routine exercise it once was,
as lenders have become more reluctant to extend credit to marginal
customers. The bankruptcy path feeds upon itself. Money supply
is reduced via capital burning. Money velocity is reduced, slowing
the entire system. Even lower interest rates contribute to the
slowing of the economy in a contracting environment, contrary
to popular inept economist beliefs.
Japan blocks bankruptcy at
every corner. Engrained within their culture is an intense reluctance
to declare insolvency and deal with the liquidation process.
Numerous examples are on record where chief executives commit
suicide in the shadow of shame. Banks do not account for non-performing
loans in the same manner as American banks, marking them down
in stages, providing loan loss reserves. Instead, they mark them
to their original price and value, an utterly moronic accounting
technique. It is estimated that $1.6 trillion in soured loans
still sit on the books of major Japanese banks. Sickly medium-sized
corporations and banks continue to survive and operate with the
help of conglomerates, known as keiretsus. The parent keiretsus
provide the necessary capital to avoid bankruptcy at all costs,
literally. They routinely resort to coercion of member banks
within the conglomerate, which relent in funding the zombie firms.
This is a Japanese phenomenon, and even has been given the name
"Vampirism." Japan muddles along from inefficient capital
recycling and release. The exact opposite is true of the United
States, where bankruptcy and liquidation might get out of control.
The flight of foreign investor capital may soon occur.
c) unlike Japan, US Economy
depends upon consumption & spending
Our nation is comprised
of countless citizens who spend compulsively, and live for today.
They borrow heavily in order to maintain a standard of living.
Many regard our standard as their entitlement. The saving rate
went from its historical 6-7% to negative levels late in the
1990 decade. The "go-go" generation has unlearned the
vast benefits of savings, which build engines of wealth. Our
financial leaders go so far as to encourage our citizens to consume,
raid home equity, all in some patriotic duty. Cheap credit is
readily available, for furniture, cars, and houses. The first
few months of payments are now offered in order to keep inventory
moving. The entire US Economy is based upon a free flow of debt,
which is possibly seeing its limitations. Many eroding factors
are taking a toll on consumer spending -- job loss, high debt
levels, saturated demand.
Japanese citizens are the most
prolific savers on the planet, with an astonishing 20% savings
rate. They fund their own colossal federal debt, now at 160%
of GDP. It is estimated that Japanese household savings total
more than $12 trillion. This energetic nation finances sovereign
debt across the entire industrial world. Their economy can benefit
from unleashing their savings and foment a riot of consumption
that would assist in lifting their economy. Many challenges remain,
such as an insolvent banking system and sick keiretsus, but at
least they are in a position to force fund their survival. The
exact opposite is true of the United States, where a stall in
consumption will threaten the entire system. The flight of foreign
investor capital may soon occur.
d) unlike Japan, much US
debt is owned by foreigners, with a trade gap widening
Foreign investors own
a dangerous amount of debt all across our financial system, with
federal govt securities the most widely held, and agency debt
picking up speed fast. Corporate debt is also prevalent in foreign
portfolios. So close is this relationship that the Federal Reserve
holds perhaps 20% of the USTBonds in New York City foreign accounts.
The actual percentage of the $6.5 trillion federal debt is in
debate, but believed to be approximately 45%. The Bible warns
that a debtor is a slave to his creditor master. It also warns
that money will become "moth-eaten." On the other hand,
our culture almost revels in its belief that if a debt is large
enough, a partner is created. The US trade gap and federal debt
perpetuate and exacerbate the strain. Our economy requires roughly
$3 billion per day of foreign capital, just to keep operating,
just to maintain a standard of living. With dependence comes
lost control of our fate. A correction to the imbalance is overdue.
Japan has never appealed to
foreigners for supplying credit, since they are the greatest
savers even seen in history. They supply credit through their
vast savings. Outside underwater mortgages, Japan does not have
deep debts at the household level. The debts at the corporate
and federal level are self-contained, owned by Japanese investors.
So this island nation is not at the mercy of foreigners and their
whims of shifting preferences. Japan's trade surplus runs annually
at a high level. The bilateral surplus with the United States
amounts to 2.5% of its GDP. It runs almost as high with the European
Union. Japan may be in deep financial trouble, with great uphill
struggles ahead, but it has the means to be in control of its
own fate. The exact opposite is true of the United States, where
a foreign dependence may someday lead to an exodus of hot money
capital, departing our economy for any of several reasons, causing
serious airpockets, leading to declines in asset prices, to increases
in interest rates, and to rising debt defaults. The flight of
foreign investor capital may soon occur.
e) unlike Japan, US Structured
Finance has created a megalith monster
Since 1990, our ingenious
Structured Finance systems have acted as centrifuge fountains
of capital to supply the residential real estate sector. Commercial
property appeals typically to commercial banks, yoked by shorter
terms of amortized loans. Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac, and other GSEs
appeal to investors with the murky promise of federal guarantees.
Now Japan and China have become major investors of agency debt.
Originators of loans assemble loan portfolios, with diminishing
concern for either properly valued collateral property, creditworthy
borrowers, or viable loan-to-value ratios. They package their
loans, sell them to Fanny Mae, then recycle the replenished capital
to repeat the process, thus socializing home ownership. As mortgage
rates fall, the refinance process leads to reinvestment of the
prematurely retired bonds into government treasury securities.
In the process a feedback loop is created, which serves to reduce
interest rates further. A new round of refinances ensues with
more enticing mortgage rates. This is one mechanism for the marketplace
to force interest rates toward zero, as occurred in Japan. Govt
policy joins the deadly dance to zero. A rampaging monster has
been created, one which operates outside regulatory oversight.
Fanny Mae recently discovered a method to account for their growing
derivative book using expected future value instead of marked-to-market
value. Earnings showed a nice improvement. The FNM stock is up
almost 30% since early March, despite a real threat to its financial
foundations, echoed by a warning from St. Louis Fed Governor
Poole.
The Japanese have no equivalent
in financial structures. Banks own their underwater mortgages
tied to residential real estate. Although not a structure, one
might identify their govt pension system as a supporting extortion.
Workers are forced by law to contribute into dead-end 1% federal
bond instruments (Japanese Govt Bonds), which by comparison lack
any dynamism of growth, and certainly fail to spin out capital.
The govt pension system manages to keep their credit market stable
but comatose with nil interest rates. The exact opposite is true
of the United States, where our structured finance apparatus
is inherently unstable, threatening mortgage finance, housing
asset prices, thus the entire economy. The flight of foreign
investor capital may soon occur.
f) unlike Japan, US Federal
Reserve is a monetization machine on steroids
Our Federal Reserve
has raised the monetization to new levels of efficiency, harnessing
technology of the printing press and computerization. Not only
is this unconstitutional agency willing to use tools broadly,
but boasts about its arsenal, all the while blind to its destructive
path and history. The Fed has failed in its charter to manage
a stable currency. The Fed overrides the credit market based
upon equilibrium, which has led to greater swings in expansion
(booms) and contractions (busts). A great danger exists from
supplying money and credit to great excess. Gresham's Law states
that bad money drives out good money. Fiat currency and low quality
debt displace sound money and real capital, a concept widely
misunderstood by our bungling economists. In fact, the US Govt
is at war with sound money. Seeds are now being planted for hyper-inflation
in the near future. The inhibiting force of the Chinese export
trade could possibly encourage the Fed to feel no boundary and
print dollars without control. A revaluation upward of their
yuan currency is certain in the next couple years, to finally
honor the World Trade Organization agreement. At that time the
malignant seeds of price inflation will sprout.
Japan primarily employs the
basic "plain vanilla" currency debasement game, issuing
yen and purchasing USTBonds to drive down its yen currency. The
Bank of Japan is the agent perpetrator in overnight trading.
The tactic lacks the sophistication of American ingenuity. Japan
enjoys the shorterm result of keeping their export prices competitively
low. American consumers enjoy the end result as well. The BoJ
thereby preserves the status quo within an export economy, maintaining
a moribund equilibrium. The exact opposite is true of the United
States, where accelerating monetary expansion undermines our
foreign creditors, setting up the potential for a dollar freefall
and all its horrendous consequences to our economy. The flight
of foreign investor capital may soon occur.
g) unlike Japan, US institutions
harbor widespread corruption
Glaring evidence in
the last two years indicates an institutionalized fabric of corruption
engrained throughout the entire US financial landscape. Corporate
accounting, brokerage analysis, executive self-compensation,
Congressional lobby to block reform, foot dragging on prosecution,
use of off-shore banks and agents, collusion between govt ministries
and financial centers, media bias catering to advertisers, all
this has changed little in the last two years since Enron made
headlines. While public awareness has grown, reform and indictments
are pathetically slow and shallow. While Americans believe a
movement has begun in our country toward remedy, foreigners see
the status quo as deeply entrenched.
Japanese have far more honesty
in their institutions, but not without an isolated rare episode
themselves. A few years ago, we heard of a palladium price fixing
case. Bribery occasionally surfaces among govt officials. But
by and large, the Japanese are a relatively honest bunch. One
area where we share extensive common ground is with subsidized
pork projects. Our pork is just staggering, with Trent Lott's
abandoned Carnival Cruise Liner project in Mzippi costing taxpayers
over $800 million. Tokyo is replete with roads to nowhere, along
with price supports for $6 peaches. Honesty is commonplace in
Japan, contrasted with a basic pursuit of honor. The exact opposite
is true in the United States, where corruption is commonplace,
contrasted with a widespread moral breakdown. The flight of foreign
investor capital may soon occur.
h) unlike Japan, US maintains
a pervasive interventionist attitude
Simply put, we are
an arrogant confrontational meddling bully nation internationally.
We confront makers of unconventional weapons, while our conventional
weapons deliver 1000:1 kill rates on the battlefield. We coerce
exporting nations to finance our federal debt, or else face a
closed marketplace. We erect trade barriers even against our
most friendly trade partners, like Canada and Europe. We abuse
our advantage of spinning off dollars that work as a world reserve
currency. We use economic strength and control of trade
routes to dictate to smaller nations, even installing puppet
govt leaders. We dole out foreign aid, expecting heavy influence
in return. We employ hypocritical international bylaws with our
friendly neighbors in the community of nations. In response,
we have seen numerous cases of retaliation. Criticism and vengeful
attack have been routine for decades. We have suffered extreme
hardship from embargoes, such as the infamous revenge by OPEC
in 1973 after our support of Israel. We have been the target
of dumping in chips, steel, and other industries. We have been
victimized with terrorist attacks. Most pernicious though, where
we interfere, we usually witness what the CIA terms "blowback"
a few years later as new tyrants brutalize their people and their
neighbors using weapons we supplied. See VietNam, Iran, Iraq,
Afghanistan.
The Japanese are notoriously
meek, wielding no military high-profile presence. They just do
not engage in confrontations and battles. They may upset
foreign inventors, coming to market more quickly with products
patented outside Japan. But speed in development is not illegal,
only frustrating. Japan hands out remarkably little foreign aid,
but one can argue that their financial creditor role for numerous
sovereign nations satisfies criteria for altruism. They exhibit
an incredibly low profile. The most ubiquitous foreign emissaries
scattered across the globe travel in the form of 1000s of Toyota
pickup trucks planted in the Islamic world, South America, and
elsewhere. The exact opposite is true of the United States, where
empire building and colonialism invite retaliation. We seem to
"walk loudly and carry a big stick bought on credit."
The flight of foreign investor capital may soon occur.
###
Apr 30, 2003
Jim Willie CB
 Jim Willie CB is the editor of the "HAT
TRICK LETTER"
email: jimwilliecb@aol.com
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Jim Willie CB
is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting.
He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 26
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