DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
September Newsletter
Inflation or Deflation

Enrico Orlandini
Oct 4, 2006

From most if not all aspects, it's been an interesting month. We are heading toward a mid-term election in the United States and that figures heavily into the market equation. If you are a Republican, you have to tell everyone what a wonderful job you're doing and make it believable. A Democrat on the other hand, must shine a light on all of the current administration's errors and it seems to me that the Bush White House is making their job a lot easier than it should be. You have the President saying that the US is safer because of the war in Iraq while, at the same time, the White House is releasing a study that shows that the war in Iraq is actually serving to increase the chances of terrorism in the U.S. Go figure! From an outsider's perspective, the U.S. made a fatal error: they looked at everything through American rose colored glasses. Thinking outside of the box was neither wanted nor was it allowed. Only "yes men" need apply. Obviously someone forgot to read their history books or they would have remembered the valuable lessons taught by the Bay of Pigs invasion.

What does the Bay of Pigs have to do with the current situation? Plenty as far as I can tell! You see back in the early 60's, all of Kennedy's advisors locked themselves in a room and debated the wisdom of invading Cuba. To a man they were all against it, and to a man not one spoke up because each one was afraid that he would be the only one to express a negative opinion. So they unanimously agreed to the invasion and it proved to be a disaster. The end result was that all the troops we armed and sent over there were slaughtered on captured on the beach and Castro is still leading Cuba forty years later. Today's situation is a little bit different but the outcome will be the same. You have the closed-to-the-public Cheney/Rumsfeld clique with an agenda that has little or nothing to do with a better and safer United States [1], dominating any and all policy decisions. Opinions to the contrary are not required nor accepted if one is interested in long term gainful employment. What is required is blind faith mixed with a modicum of intelligence and a willingness to openly violate the U.S. Constitution whenever the clique deems it necessary. You have a sitting President of the United States admitting to secret prisons, holding people without benefit of an attorney and access to the legal system for years, illegal search and seizures, illegal wiretaps, and that all seems to be peachy keen. At the risk of getting ten thousand unwanted e-mails, I seem to recall the Nazis doing the same thing. All I can say is wait until there is a knock on your door at 4 am and they take you away. It will be too late to object then.

Assuming that you're willing to accept these violations of your rights, along with your shrinking freedom, as part of the cost of a "safer" United States, and most Americans are willing to make that trade-off [2], you need to understand that there is another cost. That cost is economic and it is out of control. The current administration's policy of shop-until-you-drop, mixed with shrinking tax revenues and a slowing economy, has Depression written all over it. To the best of my knowledge this administration has never vetoed a spending bill. Never! Meanwhile the trade deficit hits a new record high every couple of months and then there is the cost of the two wars. Everybody thought Afghanistan was over and done with, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore as the Taliban found new life. Anyone who has a good working knowledge of the Arab culture could have told you how this would have played out but I suspect that wasn't one of the prerequisites for membership in the Cheney/Rumsfeld club. So expenses are through the roof, income is declining, I need to pay my bills, and my bank of last resort (Asia) seems unwilling to give me all their hard earned saving like they did in the past. What do I do? There are no secrets here folks; you have three choices if you are a government: spend less, borrow more, or print money! There is no magic involved here. No mysterious remedies to fall back on. Just plain old common sense alternatives that you and I face every day of our lives.

Since we are alienating most of our friends, and at the same time sounding our ethnocentric trumpets, I suspect that borrowing large sums of money will be next to impossible. This will be further complicated by the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank apparently wants to lower interest rates, just when the rest of the world is raising their rates. You see when you buy some one else's debt, you weigh three things: time, risk and the interest rate paid on the debt. The risk is growing, the interest rate is not competitive, and the future is uncertain at best so it's a hard sell. Cutting expenses is something no politician will ever recommend. I think it must be genetic by now. The first rule in the politician's handbook is that you must hand out money if you want to get elected, and in that respect both Democrats and Republicans read from the same book. So selling debt and cutting expenses are at best inadequate, and at worst totally out of the question. That only leaves the tool of last resort, i.e., the printing press. And print they will my friends! I believe once the November elections are over you will see a deluge of money coming out of the Federal Reserve banks the likes of which you could never have imagined. For the last couple of months the current administration has been busy painting happy faces on the economy. The Dow is very close to a new high, the price of oil is down almost twenty dollars from its Spring high, and the decline in the CRB typifies a general slide in commodities prices. All just in time for the election!

Many of my clients feel that this is all orchestrated by the present administration and will continue until the November elections. That very well may be the government's intention, I don't know, but I have studied the market long enough to know one thing: the market will almost always do what you don't want it to do just when you don't want it do to it. That's part of the law of unintended consequences. You tamper with it to make a dime and it strikes back costing you a dollar. A lot of people are under the illusion that people like the Rothschild's control and manipulate the markets for their own benefit. I disagree! People like the Rothschild's have made, and maintained, there fortunes anticipating the major political, economic, and financial moves in the world [3]. They would be among the first to take a position and then they would just sit and wait for the inevitable to happen. I know it seems too simple, but that's how the "smart money" does it. Get in early and sit tight!

Over the last month or so I have noticed what appears to be accumulation in a number of commodities including gold, silver, and copper. I've also noticed that wheat and corn have broken out over the last week and oil has experienced an upside reversal. All very strange behavior if you expect a recession given the decline in economic activity that we see in the U.S. Finally, while everyone is busy talking about the decline in housing, the Philadelphia Housing Index ($HGX) has quietly been rebounding to the upside. Take a look at the Weekly Chart below:

Note how the RSI, MACD, and histograms have all turned up. Don't jump to the conclusion that the housing boom is alive and well because that isn't the case. The fat lady has sung for housing and this is just a reaction. Put the resurgence in housing together with the other things I mentioned above and it is very strange behavior indeed! How do I explain these contrasts? In one word: stagflation. A simple definition of stagflation is rising prices coupled with a slowing economy. Why would prices rise? Too much money chasing too few goods and it is a direct result of strong demand from almost three billion Asians.

Right about now, it would be worth mentioning that the U.S. consumer is also holding up his end of the log with a relentless spending spree. Take a good long look at the best and most relentless bull market you will ever see, the Weekly Chart of the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index ($CMR):

The only word that can adequately describe this is relentless. Not even a hint of correction in an extremely overbought market. Think of it as the house that debt built. There is an end in sight though and I believe you'll see it in October, on or about the 17th to be exact [4], and then you'll really see the printing presses heat up. I have wondered out loud for the past several months just how the US plans to finance their debt with a loose money policy when the rest of the world is tightening. Well the answer is the one I didn't want to acknowledge: they are going to print their own money and buy their own debt through the Caribbean Money Centers. The Fed is so afraid of the affects deflation can have on the heaping, steaming pile of debt in the U.S., that they are willing to drive the U.S. economy into a hyperinflationary crisis in order to avoid it. Hyperinflation will eliminate the debt but it will also destroy the economy.

In conclusion, it appears to me that a combination of poor fiscal management, bad foreign policy, and political myopia are all about to combine into some sort of strange brew at precisely the worse time, and it will lead to a financial crisis. This crisis will be worse than the Depression of 1929 owing to the staggering amount of debt in the U.S. In 1929, the US was a creditor nation and had the resources to deal with the problem. That is obviously not the case now. The only "solution" will be to print money, and at first it will work like a drug addict's fix bringing temporary relief, but the end result will be economic death. I also believe that people in the Fed as well as the government know this is going to happen and are making "contingency plans". It won't be pretty and it will lead to social unrest. You can't pull away the punch bowl from three hundred million American's and expect to slide through on you good looks and a few witty remarks. Things will change and it won't be for the better. How long this takes to unfold will be anyone's guess; weeks, months, or even a couple of years. But I believe it will start now and you will be able to identify it if you really want to. Given the predominance of the internet, I believe we are looking at weeks or months rather than years. Throw in trillions of dollars of unregistered over-the-counter derivatives that very few people understand and even fewer can quantify, and a bad situation could turn down right ugly in days. I think that goes a long way toward explaining the record volume seen in the gold pit recently. The smart money is quietly picking up all they can get while the getting is still good. It is better to trade all the fiat paper you can for the only true store of wealth that has stood the test of time. My best advice is to bundle up because it is going to be a long, cold, crude winter.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Given everything I've said above, I feel there are very few options available to the average investor. Most Americans are not students of the market and wouldn't take the time to learn about it even if the opportunity were presented to them. They've been trained to blindly hand over there life's savings to people and institutions they know little or nothing about because CNN tells them to. I know that's precisely how I make my living, but I really have a hard time understanding that. When a new client approaches me to make an investment I offer to provide my service free of charge in an effort to educate him and, at the same time, help him understand why I make the decisions I do. Most of my US clients refuse the information saying they just want the statement and aren't the least bit interested in how I go about it. By contrast, almost all of my European and Asian clients request the information and will complain if it doesn't arrive before the U.S. market opens. Their statement can arrive a day late and they don't say a word, but the analysis is five minutes late and I get a hundred e-mails. What a difference in priorities! The average U.S. investor is not going to short the DJIA, and he's not going to short bonds, and he's certain not going to buy corn or the CRB. Just the thought of it makes him cringe. He will buy gold stocks though and with some luck he'll drive over to his neighborhood coin shop and buy a few Maple Leafs. With that in mind, I would line to begin with my favorite item... gold.

GOLD - It has been a tough summer for the yellow metal as prices fell from the May 11th high of $742.00 (bases the October 2006 gold futures contract) to the June 14th low of $551.50. Since then gold has undergone a period of accumulation that has led to several false starts and dashed hopes as gold bugs piled on to soon and paid for it. In mid-September we tested the June low and made what appears to be a higher low at $571.00 and that is important, especially when you consider that we are due to begin the seasonal rally. If you take a close look at the historical chart for gold below, you'll see that beginning in 2001, the price of gold has rallied in the Fall. The rally usually begins in September and lasts until January although last year's rally began in August and lasted until May. I believe that change marked the beginning of the second phase of our once-in-a-lifetime bull market for gold. The first phase lasted an extraordinarily long time, beginning in 1999 with the bottom and ending in 2005, and was highlighted by "smart monies" accumulation of gold. The still new-born second phase will be driven by institutional buying as the J. P. Morgan's of the world begin to sing the praises of gold. Eventually we'll have the third phase whereby the man-on-the-street piles on and gold prices are driven skyward [5].

Another even more important thing to wheedle out from the chart above is the fact that, in spite of the recent downward reaction, the bull market in gold is very much alive and well. It will remain so as long as we remain above the spot price of $545.00 on a closing basis.

Over the short run, I expect a lot of volatility and maybe even another test of the recent $571.00 low in the October 2006 futures contract ($569.70 in the spot price) although it becomes less likely with each passing day. Within a week or so, I expect a test of a trend line that passes through $615.00 and an eventual close above it. That will signify a break out and we should be off to the races with a close above 728.00 by year's end. There will be hurdles along the way with significant resistance at $644.50 and decent resistance at $664.20 and $686.20 (all using the spot price) but I don't think anything can stop gold from breaking through $728.60 by the end of the year. Furthermore, I believe we'll see significant advances after the November elections and there is a chance for a new all-time high if the rally extends into the Spring as it did last year. In my opinion, this is the last best opportunity to buy one of the cheapest things on the planet, i.e., gold!

SILVER - Gold's poor cousin has acted better than the yellow metal and is clearly trending up with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Likewise, if you were to go to www.cstrading.com and pull up an historical chart of silver (not shown), you would see an equally impressive and more volatile bull market for the white metal. For a more up-to-date look at silver, feast your eyes on the Weekly Chart below:

In spite of the May to June correction, the trend is clearly up and we have used the 50-wma as good support. That average is currently at $10.62 and we closed 84 cents above it on Friday, September 29th. Recently silver has worked off an overbought condition without suffering a lot of damage and the RSI has turned up. It also appears that the MACD is about to do the same. Quite impressive if you stop to think that silver has retained almost 65% of its gains from last year's strong rally.

With respect to the short term, I am looking for a test of the $15.20 May high by year's end and expect to see a test of strong resistance at $20.73 before this rally finally gives up the ghost. There will be resistance along the way: 12.07, 12.64, 13.27, 14.81, and 18.56 are the numbers you need to watch as we work our way up. As we experienced in the last go around to the upside, silver should be more volatile than gold and one must be careful if you use margin. I can't overemphasize the fact that everyone should own physical gold and silver as they will both be the only real money when all the dust settles.

GOLD STOCKS - There is little new under the sun here other than to question if gold stocks will be pulled down when the Dow eventually turns down. I suspect there will be an initial downward reaction that could last weeks of even several months. Why? When stocks turn sour the first knee-jerk response will be to throw out the good with the bad; the good in this case being gold stocks and the bad being just about everything else. What to do now is up to the individual investor. Some will choose to lighten up and wait for the reaction while others will ride it out. The risk one takes by selling now is that we may not correct and you will be forced to pay up to get back in. That is a risk I am not willing to take and will therefore sit tight. My portfolio is the same as it was last month:

• Gold Corp (GG) = 20%
• Glamis (GLG) = 15%
• Royal Gold (RGLD) = 20%
• Newmont (NEM) = 15%
• Coeur D'Alene (CDE) = 15%
• Silver Wheaton (SLW) = 15%

and I do not anticipate any changes in the near future. These are what I consider to be the bluest of the blue chip companies in the mining industry, and as such they are constant targets for misinformation, lawsuits, and governmental interference. That goes with the territory. Let me give you an example: last week a major newspaper published a report that Newmont's production will decline in the future. That should come as no surprise to anyone with half a brain as supply for all major mining companies is finite and will decline over the coming years as reserves become harder to discover. With very few exceptions, the major companies will have to "buy" their reserves by acquiring promising juniors. The discovery of large deposits will be few and far between.

I chose my portfolio for the security as well as for the dividend potential. I calculate that by the end of 2007 these companies should pay a 10% cash dividend and that's just fine with me. I'll welcome the cash flow in my declining years. For those of you who like to speculate more than I do, I would recommend Golden Star, Samex, and Durban as decent small companies with take-over potential. I held these companies from 2001 until mid-2004 and did very well.

OIL - Just when it looked like it was time to abandon ship, oil went and fooled everybody. The day was Wednesday and oil opened down and looked like it was going to plumb the depths of despair yet again. Early in the session, it traded as low as $60.10 bases the November crude oil contract and then something strange happened; it began to rally. By the time the final bell sounded, oil had jumped $2.86 to finish the day at $62.96, and what is even more significant, had managed to execute an upside reversal. I saw that as a buying opportunity and took an initial small long position in crude oil. This is not a guarantee that the bloodletting is over, but it is a good indicator of a bottom. There could be a retest and even a slightly lower low, but if we are not there, we are quite close. Take a look at the Weekly Chart for crude oil:

and you'll also observe that RSI, MACD, and the histograms have all turned up and that is a bullish indicator. The last thing this administration wants it to see a bottom in oil right now and a subsequent rally, but you don't always get what you want. In all honestly I was hoping for a decline and test of good support at $58.68 in the spot price, but it wasn't to be (although there is a slim chance we could still see it).

Assuming the bottom is in, we may see a period of consolidation as speculators reestablish their long positions. Trading could be range bound with $60.00 acting as a floor and $67.50 as the ceiling. As we work our way back up, we will encounter resistance at various levels: $64.80, $67.58, $70.12, $72.57, and $75.14 (all based on the November 2006 futures contract) are some of the more important numbers. Oil will no doubt be volatile as political intrigues exert upward/downward influences and interested parties try to talk the price down. Over the long run they are destined to fail as the bull reestablishes his authority and the price marches upward. I continue to look for prices in the $83.64 to $91.73 range by January 2007 and a test of resistance at $100.21 by late Spring (these are all spot prices).

COPPER - If there was one thing that led me to believe that the bull market in commodities would live on, it was the behavior of copper. There was some bend in copper but at no time was there any break. Take a look at the Weekly Chart of copper and you see what I mean:

Compared to the declines in oil and gold, this was a walk in the park. The sideways action has allowed copper to work off a good portion of its overbought condition without doing any serious damage to the price. Unlike gold and oil, copper has not even come close to testing the support offered by the 50-wma. Recently the RSI has turned up and it looks like the MACD is about to do the same thing.

For those of you interested in the immediate future, the scenario is becoming increasingly bullish. After bottoming at $291.45 in mid-June, we have since registered two higher lows as well as two lower highs. The price is slowly being compressed into a tighter range, and given the fact that copper is in a bull market, this should produce an upside explosion. Using the December 2006 copper futures contract as an example, we will find resistance at $347.40, $352.60, $355.60, and $362.40 as we claw our way up to the May 11th high of $380.00. There is also important resistance at 354.50 from a trend line and two consecutive closes above this will indicate that the new move up is clearly underway.

GRAINS - Here is the surprise of the month and maybe even the year. After months of disappointment and false promises, we are finally seeing some upside progress in the grains, specifically wheat and corn. Soybeans are still thinking about it but are leaning toward the upside if nothing else.

Take a look at the Weekly Chart for the Dow Jones Grains Spot Index and you will see the makings of a bullish formation with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This gradual increase has allowed the grain complex to work off an overbought condition as it trends up. You'll note that both the RSI and MACD turned up after the last low and we now appear set to rally.

Specifically, wheat and corn have broken out to the upside while soybeans show signs of accumulation. Also, both corn and wheat have left unfilled gaps in their wake while soybeans appear to be aiming to fill a large gap (5.85 to 5.95) left over from the trip down. Here are the numbers to watch for the three crops:

Wheat is obviously the more bullish of the three grains while soybeans are the laggard. Corn is no slouch though with two unfilled gaps in its wake. It is my belief that the grains are on their way up and I am looking for new 260 day highs in corn and wheat before the end of the year. The driver will be buying pressure from Asia.

CURRENCIES - Here's where we'll see the first real indications of the serious problems we currently face. A look at the Weekly Chart for the US Dollar Index shows an ominous head-and-shoulders formation followed by several months of distribution:

Everything about this chart is bearish with the exception of the fact that the dollar is still considerably oversold. The bummer for the dollar bulls is that we are working the oversold condition off with little upside progress. The recent movement has been range bound from 84.00 on the low side to 86.00 on the high side and any subsequent breakout will be significant to say the least. An upside breakout at this stage of the game would more than likely be deflationary while a downside movement would be an indication of a coming inflationary spurt.

The cash US Dollar Index futures contract rallied throughout 2005, topping out at 92.63 on December 28th of last year, and has since began a new leg down. The 83.60 low was registered on June 5th and was followed by an upside reaction. Currently we see significant resistance at 85.62 and then again at 86.50. I would not be surprised to see a close above 85.62 but a close above 86.50 would be cause for thoughtful consideration. Support is at 85.08 and 83.50. Two consecutive closes below 83.50 would indicate a test of the 80.50 low posted in late 2004 is in the cards. Any close below 80.50 would mean that the dollar is on its way to here-to-for unthinkable depths as it could trigger an Asian exodus. I liken such an event to a herd of elephants trying to escape through the eye of a needle.

My preference for fiat money is limited to the inverse of the dollar which is the Swiss Franc and I have been long the Franc, with out interruption, for more than six years. I look at the Franc from two perspectives: an insurance policy as well as an investment. With respect to insurance, the Franc is the one currency the world will turn to if we have a catastrophic event. During both the Madrid bombings and 9/11, the Franc rallied fast and hard. As an investment, it's almost as good as gold. Take a look at the historical chart for the Franc:

You can plainly see that the Franc has rallied with the best of them. I realize that its still paper but I have to believe that over the long haul Switzerland is always going to do what is in its own best interest and a strong Franc, over time, is one of its best exports. Using the December 2006 futures contract as an example, you'll note that we've been range bound for weeks. Support is at .8000 while resistance is .8231. I suspect that we'll break out to the upside before the year is out and test further upside resistance at .8327 and .8418 before breaking through the 260-day high at .8511. In conclusion, everybody needs to have some paper money in their pocket and my choice is the Franc. It has stood the test of time which can't be said for the Euro. With respect to the Yen, I demure as the Japanese spend too much time intervening and there are too many floating around in the marketplace.

BONDS - This is the hardest call of all as you have to choose between what your common sense tells you and what the Fed will probably do. I invested in bonds for the first time more than too years ago and I've probably done just about as well as anyone and maybe better. Usually I did the inverse of what seemed to be the correct course of action. Then about one month ago I decided to exit the market and I've been on the sidelines ever since. It's important to understand that bonds more than any other market tend to move in very long term cycles, twenty to thirty years is the norm. Bonds have been in a bull market since the early 1980's but, in my opinion have topped out and will now enter a bear market that will last a decade or two. That means interest rates will rise in spite of what the Fed wants or signals. Current Fed speak seems to indicate that the tightening is over but that is just posturing for the November elections.

Never loose sight that bond sales are a function of two things: yield on the one hand and supply/demand on the other hand. Right now there is way too much supply and a lot more in the pipeline and way too little demand. Once the elections are over, the Fed will magically discover that inflationary pressures have somehow emerged in the economy and will shift to a tightening policy. Yields will rise and bond prices will fall. Meanwhile bonds should trade in a range with a 114.11 ceiling and a 109.27 floor. There will be distortions in the bond price though as foreigners try to exit their positions preferring lesser risk and better quality. In an effort to keep rates from skyrocketing, the Fed will resort to printing dollars and buy its own debt back through the Caribbean Money Centers. Such action will have more unintended consequences than even I care to imagine and surely will prove to be self-destructive over the long run. Sometime before the end of the year, I may choose to sell the bonds short, but not just now.

DJIA -- I saved this for last because it is the most complicated analysis. We have they Dow about to make new all-time highs and that should be a very bullish event, but it's not. What it is is dangerous and it's the markets way of sucking in every last penny from every last widow and orphan out there just before it hands them their collective heads. A lot of the problems I see revolve around value, or better yet the lack of it. Here you have a major index supposedly ready to launch a new bull market with an astounding PER of 22 and a dividend yield below 2%. For any student of the markets, you'll recognize that these numbers are representative of bull market highs and at no time in history has a major move begun with such astronomical valuations. This won't be the first either.

Let's begin by taking a look at the historical chart for the DJIA and you'll easily recognize the all time high posted back in January 2000 followed by the first leg down into September of 2002. The bottom came in around 7,250. Since then we have seen an unprecedented liquidity induced rally designed to fend off the bear and change the primary trend of the market. That's something that has never happened before and will not succeed here.

I would like to add that this rally is becoming increasingly centered in the Dow 30 as other major indexes fail to follow in its tracks. Take a look at the Weekly Charts for the cash S & P and Transportation Index provided below:

Although not shown, the S & P is still well below its all-time high of 1,575 registered back in March 2000. The Transportation Index is another story altogether as it topped out five months ago and now appears to be undergoing distribution. There are other indexes that appear to be undergoing a similar distribution pattern including but not limited to banking ($BKX) and housing ($HGX).

In my opinion, the bear market rally in the Dow is about to come to an abrupt end but I don't doubt that we'll make a marginally higher all-time high first. After all, it makes for good press and helps bolster the President's claim that all is right with the world and the Republicans deserve to stay in office. The cash S & P will not be so fortunate however as it will encounter stiff resistance at 1,360.00 as well as considerable difficulty time wise with the October 17th date, plus or minus one day. The Transports have there own problems with good resistance at 4,480.00 which has served to dampen a number of rallies the last couple of weeks. I know I've harped on this ad nausea but the non-confirmations that are so clearly evident are telling us, better yet screaming at us, that the DJIA is a sucker bet here. I do not believe the average investor has any business being in the market, long or short, at this time. Personally, I am short the December 2006 DJIA futures contract from 11,650 and I will remain short unless the Transportation Index can confirm the Dow's new high. I really don't see any chance, so I'll just sit tight and wait for the inevitable.

References

[1] I don't pretend to know what their agenda is, but I see the results and it won't turn out well.

[2] The fact that Americans are willing to trade freedom for security is implied by their lack of action, or resistance, to these changes.

[3] There is a great book about the Rothschild's entitled "The Rothschild's: A Family Portrait" written by Frederic Morton. It will give you some wonderful insights into the most powerful family in the world.

[4] October 17th is a significant cycle date for the Dow to make a major top and then turn down into a sharp decline, and just three weeks before the elections. What lousy timing if you are a sitting President!

[5] There may be an unprecedented and unusual fourth phase if the U.S. economy collapses but that remains to be seen.

Oct 1, 2006
-Enrico Orlandini

For those of you interested in receiving information on the funds we manage, please feel free to e-mail us at ebo@dtanalysis.com and we will respond as soon as possible.

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